Trump says Iran war "close to over" amid hopes for more negotiations
Upon evaluating gold futures across various timeframes since the start of this month, I observe that prices have consistently traded within a narrow range between $4,826.83 and $4,774.21. This comes despite a monthly high of $4,888 and a low of $4,580.40. The pattern persists amid shifting stances by President Trump on Iran.
Despite the failure of hours-long trilateral ceasefire talks in Islamabad, as violence continues across the region, Gold Faces Double Blockade, Risks Sliding Despite Strong Oil Support, resulting in a steep downward move in gold futures on Monday that pushed prices to test the significant support at the 100 EMA ($4,637) on the daily chart.
Undoubtedly, a pullback was evident, but gold futures could not sustain themselves above the immediate resistance at $4,774. On Tuesday, after opening at $4,781.30, gold futures tested the day’s high at $4,919.75 and the day’s low at $4,775.76, and are currently trading at $4,795. This indicates significant bearish pressure at the immediate resistance at the 50 EMA ($4,799), while gold futures are attempting to defend the immediate supports at the 20 EMA ($4,757) and the 9 EMA.
I observe that both the 9 EMA and 20 EMA are currently below the 50 EMA on the daily chart and have formed a “Bearish Crossover,” which is likely to keep selling pressure intact despite shifting hopes of de-escalation in the war between the U.S. and Iran.
However, I explained the impact of the shifting stances of Donald Trump in my previous analysis, Gold: Technical Weakness Deepens Despite Rising Geopolitical Stress, highlighting how he tends to shift his stance—often making decisions over the weekend and reversing course by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Now, once again, on Tuesday, Donald Trump noted that the White House had been contacted by Iranian officials who would like to “make a deal,” adding that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.
Washington has reportedly demanded that Iran agree not to enrich uranium—a key component in building a nuclear weapon—as a sign of de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran. As a result, this has recently weighed on the dollar and supported gold, while crude oil futures have declined to $96–97.
A U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports extended into a second day on Tuesday, even as hopes grew for potential progress in peace talks between Washington and Iran.
British maritime officials noted that access has been restricted for vessels attempting to enter or depart Iranian ports, as well as in coastal areas in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and parts of the Arabian Sea.
The effective closure of the Strait has become a central flashpoint since the start of the conflict in late February, driving up oil prices and darkening the broader global economic outlook. Despite rising hopes that de-escalation talks could resume this Thursday, the venue and time have not yet been finalized, resulting in increased selling pressure on gold and crude oil futures.
I observe that China is likely to play a role in resolving this deal, which still appears difficult, as it may assist Iran by safely holding a significant portion of its enriched uranium. Meanwhile, the U.S. could reconsider Iran’s demand to reduce the duration of its uranium enrichment program from 20 years to 5 years.
Undoubtedly, such a deal could become possible if Donald Trump openly asserts control over his war ally, Benjamin Netanyahu.
I conclude that gold futures could become extremely volatile if Benjamin Netanyahu takes actions that disrupt these peace talks.
I observe that a firm decision by Donald Trump to sideline Benjamin Netanyahu while dealing with Iran, aimed at achieving full geopolitical easing, could accelerate a fresh selling wave in gold and silver.
***
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based solely on observations.
